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Real wages, housing market gains offer promising GOP midterm message

U.S. workers are seeing little benefit from buying and growing housing jobs as the Trump White House sharpens its economic message ahead of the midterm elections, FOX Business reporter Grady Trimble reported Thursday.

In his speech in Detroit, President Trump emphasized recent growth and low inflation as reasons for the US economy to be in good shape in 2026. He cited stronger-than-expected GDP growth in parts of 2025 and steady inflation as evidence that the economy can improve further — a charge the administration believes could benefit Republicans in November.

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Real wages adjusted for inflation rose modestly in the year ending in December 2025, while real hourly earnings rose about 1.1% from a year earlier, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A “For Sale” sign stands outside a home following a snowfall in Geneseo, Ill., on Monday, Jan. 20, 2020. (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images/Getty Images)

The housing market showed momentum late in the season, as existing home sales rose nearly 5.1% in December 2025 — the largest monthly gain in nearly two years and the fourth consecutive month of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors. However, total home sales for 2025 remained near historic lows.

Together, these data points give managers economic indicators to highlight as the midterm elections approach, although broader metrics such as labor market trends and consumer sentiment show mixed signs.

Piper Sandler Global Economist, Nancy Lazar said Thursday that the housing recovery appears to be slow and steady – pointing to lower home prices, slower home price growth, and some improvement in labor market conditions.

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He said affordability is starting to improve and could become even stronger in 2026 if wages continue to rise faster than housing prices.

“I think a healthy, moderate housing recovery is what we need. We don’t need another boom. We’ve had three booms and housing cycles since the 2000s, and each one of them led to higher housing prices and made the affordability problem more dramatic,” he told “Mornings with Maria.”

A person with a lot of money

In this undated photo taken at an undisclosed location, a person is holding a stack of money. Real wage growth was seen as a positive sign for the GOP on Thursday. (iStock / Stock)

“At the end of the day, a gradual housing recovery is what we need. Affordability is improving and management is helping. But the business cycle will also help as we move into 2026.”

While he declined to predict whether the improvement in economic data would translate into a Republican gain in the midterms, economist Art Laffer said the numbers themselves point to strong growth.

“The last three quarters under Trump have shown tremendous economic growth in terms of the most important metric, which is real GDP,” Laffer said. “Real GDP growth is about 5% annualized. That’s amazing.”

Laffer also said the headline employment figures hide underlying strength, revealing softer rates in the labor force rather than larger job losses. He said job growth among certain groups of workers has slowed growth in others.

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“That’s going to be very good for Trump in the midterms, I hope, I think,” Laffer said. “But you have to get an inspector to know how the election will go.”

Market strategist Adam Johnson also expressed optimism, pointing to strong growth in corporate earnings and higher profit margins.

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He said productivity gains — including those tied to artificial intelligence — could help support faster growth without dampening inflation.

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